After three brief rate cuts in late 2024, many South Africans hoped for lasting relief. But by early 2025, that hope has been replaced with a harder truth: interest rates are likely to remain high.

The South African Reserve Bank has paused further cuts. At its March meeting, it held the repo rate at 7.50 percent. The decision came as global pressures mounted and local uncertainties grew. It was a cautious move in a time that demands caution.

At first glance, inflation appears contained. The latest projections suggest it may even dip below four percent in the short term. But beyond the headline numbers, the risks are clear. Currency weakness. Tariff shocks. Global trade friction. These are the things that keep policymakers on edge.

Globally, major central banks are pulling back from promises to ease. The Federal Reserve’s stance remains firm. Trade tensions between the world’s largest economies are rising again. Together, these factors cast a long shadow over emerging markets like South Africa.

In this environment, the Reserve Bank faces a delicate balance. Cut rates too soon, and the rand may falter. Wait too long, and local businesses may feel the squeeze. For now, the safer choice is stillness. Hold the line. Let the dust settle.

What lies ahead is unclear. Some expect the US to soften its tone. Others believe we may be heading into another cycle of global tightening. Either way, South Africa remains exposed. And so the Reserve Bank stays cautious. Not because it wants to. But because, for now, it has to.

For households, for investors, for businesses — this is not a time of crisis. But it is a time of clarity. The world is shifting. The smart response is to watch, listen, and stay informed.

Because interest rates do more than shape borrowing costs. They tell a story. Right now, that story is still being written.